導(dǎo)讀:不知道這篇文章發(fā)出去會(huì)不會(huì)被別人噴死，BBC新聞通過(guò)歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)推測(cè)今年的冠軍球隊(duì)是比利時(shí)，并且分析的很合理，不知道你們?cè)趺纯础?/p>
Thirty-two countries, one winner.
32個(gè)國(guó)家，一個(gè)冠軍。
But how can you predict the team that will lift the World Cup in Moscow on 15 July?
但是，是否有辦法提前知道，今年7月15日，哪支球隊(duì)會(huì)在莫斯科捧起大力神杯？
By looking at the trends, statistics and patterns from tournaments past, BBC Sport has eliminated 31 nations and concluded which one will be crowned world champions.
通過(guò)分析過(guò)去歷屆賽事的趨勢(shì)、數(shù)據(jù)及規(guī)律，BBC體育（BBC Sports）已經(jīng)淘汰了31個(gè)國(guó)家，將冠軍鎖定一支球隊(duì)。
Here are the things that the 2018 World Cup winners must do...
要想將2018年世界杯擁入懷中，這支隊(duì)伍必須具備以下幾個(gè)條件……
Be seeded
種子隊(duì)伍
Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams in 1998, all of the eventual champions have been seeded. Indeed, the last non-seeded winners were in 1986, when Argentina were carried to the trophy by Diego Maradona and his ’hand of God’. In one move, we have removed 24 teams in the competition and are left with eight.
1998年開(kāi)始，世界杯決賽圈參賽隊(duì)伍擴(kuò)展到32支，而所有最終奪冠的隊(duì)伍都是當(dāng)時(shí)的種子隊(duì)伍。歷史上最近一次非種子隊(duì)伍奪冠發(fā)生在1986年，當(dāng)時(shí)馬拉多納（Diego Maradona，馬勒當(dāng)拿）的“上帝之手”將阿根廷隊(duì)送上了冠軍寶座。憑借這條規(guī)律，我們就已經(jīng)淘汰了24支球隊(duì)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)范圍縮小到下面8支球隊(duì)。
Don’t be the hosts
不要做東道主
Russia benefit from a 44-year tradition of the host nation being seeded. With a world ranking of 66, they would not be one of the top eights if they were not staging the party.
俄羅斯這次之所以會(huì)成為種子球隊(duì)，還要感謝一項(xiàng)已有44年歷史的傳統(tǒng)——東道主自動(dòng)成為種子球隊(duì)。作為世界排名66的隊(duì)伍，如果不是今年主辦比賽，他們本沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)進(jìn)入這8支候選隊(duì)伍之列。
Hosting the World Cup, though, is not the route to success it once was. The first 11 editions of the tournament, from 1930 to 1978, produced five home winners. Since then, the past nine tournaments have seen the hosts crowned champions only once - France in 1998.
然而與過(guò)去不同，今天的東道主已經(jīng)不再是通往成功的捷徑。在1930年至1978年舉行的前11屆世界杯比賽中，共有5次是東道主笑到最后。而從那之后的九屆賽事中，只有1998年的法國(guó)以東道主身份成功捧杯。
While it was never likely that the United States, Japan, South Korea or South Africa were going to win the World Cup, Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil four years ago were not helped by being the host nation.
與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)、日本、韓國(guó)及南非都沒(méi)有在主辦世界杯時(shí)奪冠，而曾經(jīng)做過(guò)東道主的意大利、德國(guó)、巴西分別在1990、2006和2014年登頂時(shí)也都不是主辦國(guó)。
Keep it tight
加強(qiáng)防守
In the 32-team era, none of the five champions have conceded more than four goals over their seven games.
進(jìn)入32支球隊(duì)參賽的時(shí)代后，至今為止的5支冠軍隊(duì)伍里，沒(méi)有一支在決賽圈的奪冠路上失球總數(shù)超過(guò)四個(gè)。
Looking at our seven remaining sides, Poland had by far the leakiest defence during qualifying, conceding 1.4 goals per game.
現(xiàn)在再看一下我們七支候選隊(duì)伍，本屆預(yù)選賽階段中防守最弱的是波蘭隊(duì)，平均每場(chǎng)比賽失球1.4個(gè)。
Germany and Portugal conceded 0.4 per game, Belgium and France 0.6, Brazil 0.61 and Argentina 0.88.
其他隊(duì)伍中，德國(guó)隊(duì)與葡萄牙隊(duì)平均每場(chǎng)失球0.4個(gè)，比利時(shí)與法國(guó)0.6個(gè)，巴西0.61個(gè)，阿根廷則為0.88個(gè)。
Be from Europe
需要來(lái)自歐洲
World Cup winners have only ever come from Europe and South America. Until recently, European teams did not travel well, but Spain’s success in South Africa and Germany’s triumph in Brazil bucked the trend.
目前為止的世界杯冠軍都出自歐洲及南美洲。但其實(shí)很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，歐洲球隊(duì)的表現(xiàn)沒(méi)有那么搶眼，西班牙隊(duì)在南非的成功和德國(guó)隊(duì)在巴西的勝利扭轉(zhuǎn)了這一勢(shì)頭。
European tournaments, though, almost always produce home winners. Of the 10 competitions to be hosted by countries from Europe, only one has been won by an outsider, and you have to go all the way back to 1958 for Brazil’s win in Sweden.
不過(guò)在歐洲舉辦世界杯時(shí)，東道主的奪冠幾率非常高。在歐洲舉辦過(guò)的10屆世界杯賽事中，只有一屆冠軍旁落歐洲之外，而且還需要追溯到1958年的瑞典世界杯，當(dāng)時(shí)巴西笑到了最后。
Have the best goalkeeper
擁有最好的守門(mén)員
You might think goalscorers win World Cups, but only twice since 1982 have the champions provided the winner of the Golden Boot - Brazil’s Ronaldo in 2002 and David Villa of Spain involved in a four-way tie in 2010.
你可能以為世界杯是靠進(jìn)球的球員贏來(lái)的，但1982年后，只有兩屆冠軍奪冠時(shí)隊(duì)中擁有最佳射手——2002年巴西的羅納爾多（Ronaldo，朗拿度）及2010年西班牙的大衛(wèi).比利亞（David Villa，韋拿）。
World Cup winners are actually more accurately defined by their goalkeeper, with four of the past five Golden Glove awards for the best keeper in the tournament going to the number one of the team that lifts the trophy.
其實(shí)，歷屆世界杯冠軍更準(zhǔn)確說(shuō)來(lái)是由守門(mén)員決定的。過(guò)去五屆比賽中，有四屆的大力神杯是由最佳門(mén)將所在國(guó)家隊(duì)捧起的。
Of the remaining four teams, it’s not hard to imagine any of Manuel Neuer (Germany), Hugo Lloris (France) or Thibaut Courtois (Belgium) being named the best goalkeeper this time around. It seems more of a stretch that Portugal’s Rui Patricio will walk away with the Golden Glove.
四支球隊(duì)中，德國(guó)隊(duì)的諾伊爾（Manuel Neuer，紐亞）、法國(guó)的洛里斯（Hugo Lloris）和比利時(shí)的庫(kù)爾圖瓦（Thibaut Courtois，高圖爾斯）都是本屆最佳守門(mén)員的有力人選，而葡萄牙的帕特里西奧（Rui Patricio，柏迪斯奧）相比之下就沒(méi)那么熱門(mén)了。
Have the experience
經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富
World Cup-winning squads are steadily getting more experienced, a trend that began when the finals expanded to 32 teams in 1998.
1998年決賽圈擴(kuò)展到32支球隊(duì)之后出現(xiàn)了一種趨勢(shì)，世界杯的奪冠球隊(duì)正變得越來(lái)越有經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
On that occasion, champions France had a squad that averaged 22.77 caps per player. Four years ago, Germany boasted 42.21 each. In between, there was a gradual rise - Brazil averaged 28.04 in 2002, Italy 32.91 in 2006 and Spain 38.30 in 2010.
從這一點(diǎn)看，1998年法國(guó)隊(duì)奪冠時(shí)每位球員平均代表國(guó)家隊(duì)出賽場(chǎng)次為22.77，而四年前的冠軍德國(guó)隊(duì)將這一數(shù)據(jù)拉高到42.21。在這之間，奪冠球隊(duì)的初賽經(jīng)驗(yàn)逐漸增加。巴西隊(duì)在2002年奪冠時(shí)球員代表國(guó)家隊(duì)出場(chǎng)次數(shù)平均為28.04，2006年意大利為32.91，2010年西班牙為38.30。
When our three remaining teams named their final squads, France’s average caps was down at 24.56, while Germany’s was at 43.26 and Belgium’s 45.13.
目前還在我們名單里的三支隊(duì)伍中，法國(guó)隊(duì)平均出場(chǎng)次數(shù)最少，為24.56次，德國(guó)隊(duì)為43.26次，比利時(shí)為45.13次。
Don’t be the defending champions
不要是衛(wèi)冕冠軍
The World Cup is hard to defend. Not since Brazil won back-to-back tournaments in 1958 and 1962 has a team lifted the trophy twice in a row.
世界杯很難衛(wèi)冕。在巴西隊(duì)于1958和1962年連續(xù)兩次奪冠后，還沒(méi)有一支隊(duì)伍可以成功衛(wèi)冕。
In fact, since that Brazil double, the 13 defending champions have only got past the quarter-finals on two occasions - Argentina in 1990 and Brazil in 1998, though Brazil did finish fourth in 1974 when the format was two group stages, then a final. In the past four tournaments, the defending champions have been eliminated in the group stage on three occasions.
而1962年的13支衛(wèi)冕冠軍球隊(duì)中，只有兩支在沖擊衛(wèi)冕之年通過(guò)了四分之一決賽，1990年的阿根廷隊(duì)和1998年的巴西隊(duì)。另外巴西隊(duì)還曾在1974年拿到過(guò)第四，但當(dāng)時(shí)決賽階段只分兩個(gè)小組，小組賽階段過(guò)后便是決賽。在過(guò)去的四屆賽事中，有三屆的衛(wèi)冕冠軍在小組賽階段便被淘汰出局。
Germany have an excellent recent World Cup pedigree. In the past nine tournaments - including three as West Germany - they have won twice, reached three more finals and finished third on two more occasions.
本屆衛(wèi)冕冠軍德國(guó)最近的世界杯賽績(jī)極佳。在過(guò)去九屆賽事（三次以西德參賽）中，他們共兩次奪冠，另外還有三次打進(jìn)決賽，兩次獲得第三。
However, when it comes to winning it again in Russia, history is against them.
然而如果想在俄羅斯成功衛(wèi)冕，歷史恐怕不會(huì)站在他們這邊。
So, there you have it. Belgium are going to win the World Cup. Unless someone else does. Which is possible....
這樣看來(lái)，結(jié)果就在你眼前了。比利時(shí)將贏得世界杯。除非另外一支球隊(duì)奪冠。當(dāng)然這是有可能的……
