Meteorological disaster ( mainly wind damagae , waterlog disaster and drought damage ) was classified by five categories as slight , not serious , medium , relatively serious and serious by the degree of its influence on guangzhou , and divided into 3 ranges in time : short - term ( 2000 2002 ) , medium - term ( 2003 2006 ) , and long - term ( 2007 2010 ) . through the investigation by 57 experts who had been engaged in disatser research for a long time , with application expert of assessment method ( delphi method ) the results showed that wind damage would have the greatest influence on guangzhou among the meteorological disasters . in the coming 10 years , there would be tropical cyclone influence on guangzhou almost every year , which would bring a certain extent of damage that was 10 15 % more serious than that in normal year . waterlog disaster brings less influence compared them with tropical cyclone in short term , but its influence was close to that of tropical cyclone in mid - term and even surpasses that of tropical cyclone in long - term . waterlog damage in forcasting period will be about 10 % more serious than that in normal year 將氣象災(zāi)害(主要是風(fēng)災(zāi)、澇災(zāi)和旱災(zāi))對(duì)廣州市的影響程度分成輕微、偏輕、中等、偏重和嚴(yán)重五個(gè)級(jí)別,在時(shí)間上將未來10年分成三個(gè)時(shí)期:近期( 2000 2002年) 、中期( 2003 2006年) 、遠(yuǎn)期( 2007 2010年) ,通過對(duì)廣州市57名長(zhǎng)期從事災(zāi)害研究的專家的調(diào)查,再運(yùn)用專家評(píng)估法,結(jié)果表明:在三種災(zāi)害中,對(duì)廣州市影響最大的是風(fēng)災(zāi),未來10年幾乎每年都有熱帶氣旋影響廣州,造成較大程度的損失,其損失程度約比中等年份偏多10 15 ;澇災(zāi)對(duì)廣州市的影響在近期比臺(tái)風(fēng)小,中期與臺(tái)風(fēng)的影響接近,至遠(yuǎn)期的影響超過臺(tái)風(fēng),整個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)比中等年份偏多10左右。
In the second part , the author firstly identified the 12 key success factors of the software corporation by employing delphi method , then conducted detailed analysis about the external and internal condition of " lw " software corporation , on basis of this , analyzed the external opportunities and threats , the internal strengths and weakness of " lw " software corporation , finally , clarified the developing opportunity and the critical problems that should be solved for " lw " software corporation 第二部分中,首先采用德爾菲法確定出十二個(gè)公司的關(guān)鍵成功因素,然后,對(duì)公司的宏觀環(huán)境、行業(yè)狀況和微觀環(huán)境進(jìn)行了仔細(xì)的調(diào)查分析;在此基礎(chǔ)上,形成swot分析矩陣,明確了公司的機(jī)會(huì):公司在西部的零售商業(yè)自動(dòng)化軟件細(xì)分市場(chǎng)中具有較強(qiáng)的優(yōu)勢(shì)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,是公司發(fā)展的有利市場(chǎng);并評(píng)估出公司的十二個(gè)關(guān)鍵成功因素的綜合具備程度在行業(yè)中屬于中等水平。
Without the modernization of country economy , the modernization of our national economy may not come to true . tuyou banner is a large agricultural banner in baotou city of inner mongolia . there are mountainous areas and wide plains . in recently nears , right tumete banner country economy has acquired quiet progress , but there are much development bootleneck and deficiency . so how to promote further development of right tumete banner , overtake developed area and realize the modernization and grandiose goal of fairly prosperous and secure society becomes an important issue in front of us . this text analyses theory about country economy and development environment of country economy in tuyou banner from nature and humanism in base of theories and methods which were studied by many experts . by utilizing delphi method , we analyses synthetically development current situation of country economy in right tumete banner and put forward the basic principle and suggestion , these suggestion include the improvement of the ability and level of country government in controlling economy , fostering leading industry , constructing favourable town system , advancing collective ability of fluidity element , fostering markets which takes on activity and forming humanism environment which adapts market economy . by force of these study , we expect to promote the sustainable development of the country economy in right tumete banner , and this will provide guidelines and uses for reference for the other similar country 近年來,土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展,但仍然存在著發(fā)展的瓶頸和不足。因此,怎樣促進(jìn)土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,趕超發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化和建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的宏偉目標(biāo),是擺在我們面前的一個(gè)重要問題。本文在研習(xí)已有的研究縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論與方法的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論進(jìn)行探析,從自然和人文兩方面簡(jiǎn)析了土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展環(huán)境,通過特爾斐法綜合分析了土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,刨析了土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在的問題及其原因,提出了發(fā)展的基本原則,從提高縣級(jí)政府調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)的能力和水平、培育主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)、構(gòu)建優(yōu)化城鎮(zhèn)體系、提高對(duì)流動(dòng)性要素的聚集能力、培育具有活力的市場(chǎng)主體和形成適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展人文環(huán)境等方面提出對(duì)策建議,希望能促進(jìn)土右旗縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,并對(duì)其它類似縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展予以指導(dǎo)和借鑒。
In order to prove these suppose , this paper first analyzed the case of liushi low voltage electric cluster and made a preparatory conclusion . then we used the delphi method and investigated 21 clusters ( at last 18 cluster date were valid ) and 43 experts . from this investigation we proved that competition , entrepreneurship , information communication , specialization and innovation were important drivers of the cluster ' s evolution , agent with limited varied schema was a postulate and accident and government policy were necessary at some extent 本文首先通過溫州柳市低壓電器集群的案例初步驗(yàn)證了這六個(gè)假設(shè),然后本文通過對(duì)全球43位專家21個(gè)企業(yè)集群(最終有效集群為18個(gè))成長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)的調(diào)查最終證明了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、創(chuàng)業(yè)氛圍、信息交流、分工、創(chuàng)新氛圍這五要素是集群進(jìn)化的重要?jiǎng)恿?,有限的不同心智模式是集群進(jìn)化的基本條件,機(jī)遇和政府政策也對(duì)集群進(jìn)化起著某種不可缺少的角色。
The Delphi method ( ) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.