The work lay a fundation to understand individual panic . a kind of the individual panic perception model based logit modelling is proposed , which is tested by sars event . the results showed that the individual panic is only related to some main factors for given event in spite of many other factors , and these main factor can be estimated in advance by risk types estimation . a kind of individual risk perception model influnenced by information is proposed , which is to study information effects on individual risk perception and demonstrated by panic buying in sars event . the rsults show that individual panic and overreaction under crisis is related to people ’ s mental anticipation directly , and the anticipation may result in people ’ s overreaction by private information , and the effect of pulic information lies on consistency between private information and public information , and people ’ s confidence to government . 提出了基于logit建模的個體災(zāi)難恐懼感知模型,并以sars為例進(jìn)行了實(shí)驗(yàn)分析,研究表明,雖然影響個體恐懼的因素很多,但對于特定危機(jī)事件來說,個體的恐懼來源主要取決于幾個主要因素,而這些因素是可以根據(jù)影響類型事先預(yù)見的。建立了信息對個體風(fēng)險感知影響模型,研究了信息在個體風(fēng)險感知中的作用,并以sars中的物品搶購現(xiàn)象為例進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。研究表明,危機(jī)事件下恐慌行為與過度反應(yīng)直接與人們的心理預(yù)期有關(guān),心理預(yù)期在私人信息的作用下會產(chǎn)生過度反應(yīng),公開信息的作用取決于兩者信息的一致性和公眾對政府的信任程度。
Secondly , because the logit model applied to the traffic assignment is only suit to the problem of the trip cost independent of the number of passengers on the route and the stochastic user equilibrium model is abstruse and complex in solution , the author brought forward the ameliorative method of the logit model 其次,在交通分配子系統(tǒng)中,由于logit型的隨機(jī)路徑選擇模型只適用于路徑的實(shí)際出行成本與路徑流量無關(guān)的交通分配問題,而隨機(jī)均衡配流模型( stochasticuserequilibrium , sue )雖然考慮了路徑流量,但算法復(fù)雜,難于推廣。
Finally , the features for citizen ' s trip of nanchang is analized by using the g - logit model . based on the mechanism of personal trip decision behavior and the definition of socioeconomic potentiality around a traffic zone , a new trip generation forecasting model and its calibration algorithm are developed in this paper ( 1 )出行生成模型:交通小區(qū)通達(dá)性和便利程度在很大程度上影響著居民的交通生成量,傳統(tǒng)的出行生成預(yù)測模型無法反映這一特征。通過引入交通小區(qū)的區(qū)位系數(shù)來反映上述因素的影響,建成一類新型的出行生成預(yù)測模型,并將其用于煙臺市出行生成分析。
This paper summarizes the development of logit model and main deriving forms . and the author studies the model and gives the method to calculate parameter . surrounding the theme of mode - split application , the author writes a program to confirm the model with emulational data of some main area of nanjing city and the data of traffic investigation in puyang city 論文歸納了logit模型的發(fā)展以及主要派生模型,研究并推導(dǎo)了logit模型的標(biāo)定方法,并圍繞其在交通方式劃分應(yīng)用的主題,利用南京市部分區(qū)域的仿真調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)和濮陽市實(shí)際調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對模型的計算方法和開發(fā)的相應(yīng)程序進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。
The residential differentiation also has close relationship to urban economy . many factors such as social productivity , landscape , traffic , family income , environment , social group and land price can influence the residential differentiation . by reviewing five main models on the residential differentiation study , this thesis chooses the hedonic based multi - variable logit model 此外,居住空間分異的研究對指導(dǎo)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也有非常重要的作用,它從資源空間配置的效率、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及影響社會穩(wěn)定與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展等方面與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)有著密切的聯(lián)系。