We have combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to foresee the market size . firstly , we found the relative factors influencing the truck market through qualitative analysis and picked up several main factors by quantitative analysis , such as highway mileage , social fixed assets investment capital and consumption expenditure , etc . secondly , we set up four models by using those factors . the four models are a time series model , a multiple regression model , a factor regression model and an integrated model 首先,通過定性分析找到了影響我國載貨汽車保有量的相關(guān)因素,接著又進一步進行定量的分析,從而確定了公路里程數(shù)、基本建設(shè)固定資產(chǎn)投資額和我國社會消費支出額等為主要影響因素;然后,利用前面的分析結(jié)果構(gòu)造了三個模型,即時間序列模型、多元回歸模型和因子回歸模型,并綜合幾個模型的優(yōu)點建立了一個綜合的預(yù)測模型,這一部分也是全文的重點部分;最后,分析比較了各模型的優(yōu)劣并給出了每個模型的適用情況。
The new model can resolve the unresolved problem such as the relation among the attack events , the model forecasting and the model preventing . we use petri net to model the new intrusion detection model , and we make the qualitative and quantitative analysis of reachability and complication degree , and then we use c + + builder 6 . 0 to fulfill the model ' s reachability property and performance analysis 本文對此時間序列模型用petrinet進行建模,對所建模型進行可達(dá)性、復(fù)雜度等性質(zhì)的定性定量的分析,并且使用c + + builder6 . 0對模型的可達(dá)性性質(zhì)進行了編碼實現(xiàn)和性能分析。