多變量協(xié)方差分析 multiple covariance analysis; multivariate analysis of covariance
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At first , this paper analyzes the factors of water - sand influencing water level of yellow river and the feasibility just using the factors of water - sand to study water level , and collects the corresponding data ; secondly , because there are strong nonlinear relation in the corresponding data , by meticulous theory analysis , this paper integrates basic nonlinear analysis method , theory of random analysis , method of least squares and so on . it puts forward a method which can get the high accuracy simulation of the data , perfects the multi - factor analysis of variable ( over three factors ) of the statistic ; thirdly , it applies the method to the approximation of corresponding water level process which belong to the capacity of sand of middle - high and middle - low , and get the high - accuracy simulation about the typical nonlinear relation ; at last , this paper definitudes the main influence mode that the capacity of sand . it mainly unite with other factors to work on the water level in the yellow river lower reaches ; mor eover , this paper analyzes the difficult point and the direction of improvement to realize the accuracy forecasting of the flood level of erodible - bed channel 首先,系統(tǒng)分析了影響黃河水位的水沙因素,及僅用水沙因素有效研究水位的可行性,并按變量對應思想采集它們的相應數(shù)據(jù);其次,由于相應水位過程數(shù)據(jù)中含極強的非線性關(guān)系,本論文經(jīng)細致的理論分析,將基本的非線性分析方法、統(tǒng)計建模方法、隨機分析理論、最小均方誤差原則等等數(shù)學理論及方法有機揉合,提出了能有效實現(xiàn)這類數(shù)據(jù)高精度擬合的分層篩選法,并改進了統(tǒng)計學中多因子(三個以上)方差分析法;再次,將這一方法用于黃河中高及中低含沙類洪水相應水位過程的擬合,實現(xiàn)了這一典型非線性關(guān)系的高精度擬合,各年汛期上下游相應洪水位過程的擬合誤差都較??;最后,明確黃河下游含沙量對水位的主要影響方式,即含沙量主要是與其它因素聯(lián)合對水位作用;另外分析了要實現(xiàn)變動河床洪水位過程準確預報的困難所在及改進方向。